Scott Douglas Jacobsen Article title: “Trump campaign projects confidence and looks to young male voters for an edge on Harris.” There’s been other research on whether this is conclusive. 

Rick Rosner: Does this article cite any polling? Who is it from? Does it indicate anything substantial?

Jacobsen: The article is by Jill Colvin and Michelle L. Price. It mentions that Trump’s campaign is counting on young male voters to give him an edge in November’s presidential contest. But is this based on anything real? 

Rosner: The Trump campaign is in trouble. This seems like it’s based on nothing—they’re desperate. Why are we even talking about this article? It’s horseshit. If you look at the past three weeks since Harris became the candidate, the Democrats have gone from two points behind in polling to two points ahead. I looked up the old polling from 2020, and in the month leading up to the election, Biden had a lead of 8 to 10%. We haven’t even had the Democratic National Convention yet, which is in about ten days. That’ll likely give the Democrats another 1 or 2% bump. Harris has enthusiastically attended rallies.

I hope and think that by October, she’ll be leading in the polls by at least 5%. By-election week, I hope it’s up to 7%. She’ll need to maintain steady momentum and not make any big mistakes, and enthusiasm for her will have to keep growing fairly steadily. But it’s highly possible, given how bad Trump looks.

He looked bad in 2020 because 2020 was one of the worst years in U.S. history. The country shut down with COVID. We had the most people without jobs in U.S. history. Trump’s administration had the deadliest four-year presidential term, with a million dead. It was a terrible year.

Can Trump look as bad this year as he did in 2020? Harris might look better in 2024 than Biden did in 2020. But it’s also harder to vote in America this time around.

In 2020, 159 million Americans—two-thirds of all voting-age Americans voted for the first time in history. Since then, Republicans have made it harder to vote because when people turn out in large numbers, it favours Democrats. So, we probably won’t get 159 million voters; we might get 152 million.

But even with that, we’ve got RFK Jr., who might pull 5% of the vote. We didn’t have third-party candidates who pulled as high a percentage as in 2020. But even so, the winning percentage of Harris over Trump might be close to what Biden’swas. The Republicans are full of stupid, desperate hokum. Idiots run them.

Trump’s daughter-in-law, Laura Trump, who’s married to Eric—considered the less intelligent of the brothers—is in charge of the RNC. They’re starving down-ballot candidates of money to spend on their foolishness. It’s a bad campaign. Plus, you’ve got Project 2025, which is this conservative wish list that scares people. You’ve got Roe v. Wade being overturned and the end of constitutionally guaranteed reproductive rights. You’ve got many issues in play.

I don’t want to hear any more about anything the Republicans think they’re doing right at this point because they don’t seem to be doing much right at all.

Rick Rosner, American Comedy Writer, www.rickrosner.org

Scott Douglas Jacobsen, Independent Journalist, www.in-sightpublishing.com

License & Copyright

In-Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. ©Scott Douglas Jacobsen and In-Sight Publishing 2012-Present. Unauthorized use or duplication of material without express permission from Scott Douglas Jacobsen strictly prohibited, excerpts and links must use full credit to Scott Douglas Jacobsen and In-Sight Publishing with direction to the original content.

Photo by Craig Whitehead on Unsplash