How does Rick Rosner connect oil price shocks, Russia’s war in Ukraine, evolutionary trade-offs, and human longevity in conversation with Scott Douglas Jacobsen?

Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner explore how war, energy markets, and biology intersect across Ukraine, Iran, and the United States. They consider whether conflict-driven oil price spikes strengthen Russia’s capacity to continue attacking Ukraine, while also examining drones, political instability, and the strategic role of Iran. The conversation then shifts into evolutionary theory, longevity, reproductive trade-offs, and the difficulty of selecting for lifespan in animals. They conclude with reflections on anxiety, repetitive behavior, aging, and stellar color, revealing Rosner’s wide-ranging, analytical style. The interview moves fluidly from geopolitics to science, grounded in Jacobsen’s reporting perspective from Kyiv. 

Oil Prices, Ukraine, and Air Raids

Rick Rosner: Was that your question, Rick? The price of oil has surged because of the war involving Iran, which has increased energy revenues for Russia. Russia has spent enormous financial resources and a great many lives on its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth calendar year. The question is whether increased oil revenue is helping sustain or intensify Russian attacks.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: In Kyiv this spring, the pattern of air raid alerts has been volatile. Some days have multiple alarms, while others have none. On earlier trips, there was usually a curfew from midnight to five in the morning, and Russian attacks often came during that period, using ballistic missiles and, primarily, Shahed-type drones.

Rosner: When you say “Shahed,” that sounds like a drone that originates, at least in part, in Iran.

Jacobsen: Yes, the technology originates in Iran. The term “Shahed” is often used broadly to describe a category of Iranian-designed loitering munitions, particularly the Shahed-136 and related variants used by Russia. Ukrainians joked about calling them “Shahedovs,” adding a Russian-style suffix to the Iranian name.

This appears to be a temporary spike—a wartime surge in pricing that may not last indefinitely. Elevated oil prices help the Russian war effort in the short term, but that advantage is not permanent. Over the long term, energy markets are expected to continue shifting toward renewables.

Rosner: When Americans hear the word “drone,” they often imagine a small quadcopter. You seem to be describing something larger.

Jacobsen: Correct. The Shahed-136 is much larger—closer to a small aircraft than a hobby drone, with a wingspan of roughly several meters. It carries an explosive payload and can cause significant damage. If fires are triggered, the destruction can increase substantially. Recent strikes, including in Lviv, have caused damage in part due to resulting fires.

American Politics, Protest, and Instability

Rosner: We are speaking late Saturday night in the United States and Sunday morning where you are. Today in the U.S., there was another set of “No Kings” protests—thousands of events across the country.

Reports indicate more than 3,000 rallies nationwide, with some international participation. Estimates suggest turnout in the millions, possibly among the largest protest mobilizations in U.S. history, although exact rankings remain uncertain.

At the same time, the United States is dealing with disruptions tied to a partial government shutdown affecting airports. There have been reports of long lines, staffing shortages, and operational strain at airports due to the shutdown. There are also indications of increased U.S. military activity.

There has been a buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East, including deployments of Marines and airborne units. However, specific claims about readiness notices vary in reliability. What is clear is that additional troops have been positioned in the region. There has been discussion of potential escalation involving Iranian infrastructure, including Kharg Island.

Kharg Island is Iran’s primary oil export hub and a critical strategic asset. It has already been targeted in recent military actions and remains central to escalation scenarios. Any further action involving it would have major implications for global energy markets and regional stability.

Taking or destroying such a target could be framed as a war objective. Trump is under political pressure. Historically, presidents with low approval ratings often face significant losses in midterm elections, sometimes on the order of dozens of House seats, which can shift control of the chamber. Control of the Senate in such cycles is often more competitive.

That said, projections about specific seat losses are uncertain and depend on multiple variables, including district-level dynamics, turnout, and economic conditions. Losing control of the House would constrain legislative priorities, although executive authority would remain substantial.

There are also ongoing controversies and unresolved legal matters circulating in public discourse, though the scope and details of alleged evidence—particularly claims about millions of undisclosed Epstein-related materials—remain unverified in credible public reporting.

Trump is approaching 80 years of age, and critics argue that his rhetoric and decision-making appear increasingly erratic. Others dispute that characterization. What can be said is that there is visible tension within political leadership, and varying degrees of restraint among advisers and cabinet-level figures.

Some observers describe the current moment in the United States as politically unstable or norm-straining, though characterizations such as “dictatorship” are interpretive and debated.

From the outside, especially from a country experiencing a full-scale war, some of this may sound comparatively less severe.

Jacobsen: That is fair. Ukraine has been under sustained invasion for over four years, which puts these concerns into perspective.

Energy Markets and Political Signals

Rosner: Let us turn to the energy question. There is a basic economic point. Rising oil prices can increase revenues for producers. Iran, for example, continues to export oil, including through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route. Higher prices can increase revenue per barrel, even under sanctions, depending on enforcement and market conditions.

There are arguments that allowing some Iranian oil to reach global markets can help moderate extreme price spikes, though this is part of a complex sanctions and enforcement landscape. It is reasonable to say that conflict-driven price increases can, in some circumstances, benefit oil-exporting states, including Iran.

A second indicator often discussed is the number of members of Congress choosing not to run for reelection. Elevated retirement numbers can signal political uncertainty or anticipated electoral difficulty. However, such numbers fluctuate across cycles and should be interpreted cautiously.

Recent cycles have seen dozens of House members and several senators retire ahead of elections, though comparisons to historical records depend on how the data are counted and updated over time. These trends can suggest internal party concerns but are not definitive predictors of electoral outcomes.

There were two separate security incidents involving Trump in 2024. In one case, a gunman fired shots at him during a campaign rally and injured him. In another incident, an armed individual was apprehended by the Secret Service near one of his golf properties before any attack occurred. Events like these understandably create concern.

Jacobsen: It raises broader questions about political stability.

Rosner: Yes, although claims about a president being “the least popular ever” are typically based on selective polling comparisons and depend on timing and methodology. Approval ratings fluctuate, and historical comparisons should be made cautiously.

Evolution, Longevity, and Natural Selection

Jacobsen: Let us shift to a different topic—evolution and longevity. Over roughly 3.5 billion years of life on Earth, evolution has not produced organism-level immortality in complex multicellular life. That is not because evolution “fails,” but because evolution has no goals or intentions. It is not a coherent entity. It is a process in which heritable traits that improve reproductive success become more common over generations.

Rosner: Evolution does not aim for perfection. In many species, especially mammals, selective pressure favors survival long enough to reproduce and, in some cases, to support offspring. Humans, for example, have unusually long developmental periods. Infants are born relatively underdeveloped and require extended care, which likely contributed to evolutionary pressure for longer lifespans compared to many other species.

However, there is little direct evolutionary pressure for indefinite survival. Traits that extend life beyond reproductive usefulness are only weakly selected for, unless they contribute indirectly—for example, through caregiving or social roles, as proposed in hypotheses such as the “grandmother effect.”

Maintaining an organism in peak reproductive condition over long periods is also biologically costly. Energy allocation between maintenance, growth, and reproduction creates trade-offs, which are central to life-history theory.

Consider octopuses. Many species live only one to two years and reproduce once before dying—a strategy known as semelparity. Females often die shortly after tending their eggs. While octopuses are highly intelligent, evolution does not “prioritize” intelligence or longevity; it favors reproductive success within a given ecological niche.

Evolution is indifferent to individual outcomes. It is not a guiding force with intent, but a statistical process shaped by variation, inheritance, and selection. Species that reproduce effectively—even with short lifespans—can be highly successful from an evolutionary perspective.

Rosner: One common reproductive strategy is to produce many offspring with relatively low survival rates. Species such as opossums follow this model. They have high mortality rates due to predation, vehicles, and environmental factors, so producing numerous offspring increases the likelihood that some will survive to reproduce. Despite individual vulnerability, the species persists.

A similar strategy applies to many octopus species. They produce large numbers of eggs, most of which do not survive to adulthood. These organisms are not built for long-term durability because their reproductive strategy does not require it. From an evolutionary perspective, what matters is reproductive success, not individual longevity.

Jacobsen: That raises the question of whether long-lived or even “immortal” organisms exist.

Rosner: There are organisms that approach biological immortality in certain senses. Many single-celled organisms reproduce through division, effectively creating genetically identical copies. While individual cells do not live forever, the lineage can persist indefinitely under stable conditions.

Some multicellular organisms also exhibit negligible senescence. Certain jellyfish, such as Turritopsis dohrnii, can revert to earlier life stages under specific conditions, although this is not true immortality in the strict sense. In addition, some trees—such as bristlecone pines—can live for thousands of years if environmental conditions allow.

However, these cases are exceptions. For most species, there are trade-offs between longevity, reproduction, and resource use. From a life-history perspective, producing many short-lived offspring can be more efficient than sustaining fewer individuals capable of reproducing many times over long lifespans.

If a strategy involving hundreds of reproductive cycles were consistently advantageous, it would be more common in nature. Its relative rarity suggests that, in most ecological contexts, it is not the most efficient use of energy and resources.

There are also biological and logistical constraints on selecting for longevity. Humans, for example, commonly live into their seventies or eighties, with some reaching their nineties or beyond. Research has extended lifespan in model organisms such as worms and mice, but translating these effects to humans has proven far more difficult. Humans already possess many of the physiological mechanisms associated with extended lifespan, making further gains more complex.

Longer lifespans in humans and other primates are associated with extended developmental periods. Human infants are born relatively underdeveloped and require years of care, which likely contributed to evolutionary pressures favoring longer adult survival. This is often linked to the evolution of large brains and complex social structures.

Selective Breeding and Lifespan

Jacobsen: What about selectively breeding for longevity in animals?

Rosner: It is more difficult than selecting for visible traits such as size or coat characteristics. Longevity can only be measured over time, which slows the process. Breeders often rely on long-term observation across generations. Broadly, smaller dog breeds tend to live longer than larger breeds, although there is variation within size categories.

If you are trying to breed for longevity, you can pair individuals from longer-lived lines and observe the outcomes. However, within a specific breed, selecting for lifespan is much more complex than selecting for visible traits. You must breed a cohort, wait several years for them to age, and then identify which individuals came from longer-lived parents. Since older animals are often no longer of breeding age, selection occurs through their offspring rather than the individuals themselves.

This makes the process multigenerational and time-intensive. Unlike traits such as ear shape or coat type, longevity cannot be assessed early in life. It requires extended observation across generations. In that sense, breeding for lifespan is inherently slower and more resource-intensive.

This principle may extend beyond intentional breeding. Even in natural selection, traits linked to longevity require long-term generational feedback, which can limit how strongly they are selected for compared to traits that confer immediate reproductive advantages.

Animals and Habits

Jacobsen: What kinds of animals have you ridden?

Rosner: I have ridden horses multiple times and am comfortable with them. Early experiences can be unpredictable; animals respond to a rider’s confidence and control. I have not ridden animals such as camels or donkeys. There are accounts of ostrich riding in some regions, but I have not experienced that.

Jacobsen: Have your habits changed over time—for example, nail biting?

Rosner: Yes. I used to bite my nails for many years but rarely do so now. One reason is that I keep a nail file on hand, which gives me something to do with my hands and helps maintain short nails.

However, the underlying behavior has not disappeared entirely; it has shifted. Many people exhibit forms of repetitive self-directed behavior—sometimes described as “stimming”—such as tapping, chewing gum, or other actions. In my case, this can involve picking at skin or minor imperfections. It reflects a broader tendency toward repetitive or self-soothing behaviors rather than a single habit.

I still engage in some self-directed behaviors, although I no longer bite my nails as much.

Anxiety, Stimming, and Aging

Jacobsen: Do you think that is related to anxiety?

Rosner: I do experience anxiety, but this behavior is better understood as a form of stimulation—often called “stimming.” It helps maintain focus, particularly when fatigued, through physical engagement. This is commonly associated with people on the autism spectrum, but similar behaviors are widespread. Many people use repetitive actions to stay alert when tired.

My anxiety tends to manifest in other ways. For example, I exercise frequently. When I wake up, I move carefully to keep my heart rate stable. As people age, the body often produces discomfort signals upon waking—not necessarily pain, but stiffness. That can trigger a physiological response, such as an elevated heart rate. I try to keep it from rising too quickly until it stabilizes.

It is also well established that cardiovascular events, including heart attacks, occur more frequently in the morning. Sudden exertion or physiological stress after waking may contribute in some cases.

Stars, Temperature, and Color

Jacobsen: Switching topics—why do cooler stars appear red, while hotter stars appear blue or white?

Rosner: The color of a star is determined by its surface temperature. Cooler stars emit light with longer wavelengths, which appear red. Intermediate-temperature stars, such as the Sun, appear yellowish-white. Hotter stars emit shorter wavelengths and appear blue or blue-white.

In stellar evolution, a red giant is cooler at the surface than a main-sequence star like the Sun, even though it can emit more total energy. This is because it expands significantly. As a star exhausts hydrogen in its core, it begins burning helium and expands dramatically. For example, when the Sun becomes a red giant, its outer layers are expected to extend close to, or possibly beyond, the orbit of Venus.

As the radius increases, the surface area grows substantially. Even if total energy output rises, the energy per unit area decreases, resulting in a lower surface temperature. Star color is therefore a function of surface temperature, which reflects the average energy of emitted photons.

Hair and Appearance

Jacobsen: Do you like having curly hair?

Rosner: It has been fine. Hair has never been a major factor in perceived attractiveness. I have had periods where it looked better or worse. At present, some greying reduces the appearance of thinning. Over time, hair quality fluctuates, but it has not been especially important relative to other factors such as communication or overall appearance.

Rick Rosner is an accomplished television writer with credits on shows like Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Crank Yankers, and The Man Show. Over his career, he has earned multiple Writers Guild Award nominations—winning one—and an Emmy nomination. Rosner holds a broad academic background, graduating with the equivalent of eight majors. Based in Los Angeles, he continues to write and develop ideas while spending time with his wife, daughter, and two dogs.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen is a Writer-Editor for www.rickrosner.org with more than 2,000 collaborative short-form and long-form interviews with Rick Rosner. He is the Founder and Publisher of In-Sight Publishing (ISBN: 978-1-0692343; 978-1-0673505) and Editor-in-Chief of In-Sight: Interviews (ISSN: 2369-6885). He writes for International Policy Digest (ISSN: 2332–9416), The Humanist (Print: ISSN, 0018-7399; Online: ISSN, 2163-3576), Basic Income Earth Network (UK Registered Charity 1177066), Humanist Perspectives (ISSN: 1719-6337), A Further Inquiry (SubStack), Vocal, Medium, The Good Men Project, The New Enlightenment Project, The Washington Outsider, rabble.ca, and other media. His bibliography index can be found via the Jacobsen Bank at In-Sight Publishing comprised of more than 10,000 articles, interviews, and republications, in more than 200 outlets. He has served in national and international leadership roles within humanist and media organizations, held several academic fellowships, and currently serves on several boards. He is a member in good standing in numerous media organizations, including the Canadian Association of Journalists, PEN Canada (CRA: 88916 2541 RR0001), and Reporters Without Borders (SIREN: 343 684 221/SIRET: 343 684 221 00041/EIN: 20-0708028), and others.

Photo by Ivana Cajina on Unsplash

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