Scott Douglas Jacobsen presses Rick Rosner on why Donald Trump’s approval is deflating amid cost of living strain, tariffs, and a long federal shutdown. Rosner, who places tiny prediction bets, expects support to hover in the low forties. He argues Trump’s chaos distracts from policy failures, with inflation near three percent and looming insurance hikes hurting households. He criticizes ICE’s accountability and leadership, citing broader abuses of power. On Wole Soyinka’s visa, he decries political vindictiveness. Addressing elevated stillbirths, he points to COVID’s long tail, deferred care from affordability barriers, and persistent racial inequities in maternal and infant health outcomes.