What does Rick Rosner say about the prospects for regime collapse in Iran, current COVID trends, and the intensifying strike pattern in Kyiv?

In this interview, Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner discuss reports about a possible injury or death of a senior Iranian figure, stressing caution because the claims rely on unnamed sources. Rick Rosner argues that limited U.S. airstrikes would be unlikely to trigger rapid regime collapse in Iran, given the country’s scale, military depth, and the historical resilience of its ruling system. The conversation then turns to COVID, where Rosner notes low case levels in Los Angeles and California. Jacobsen closes by describing Kyiv’s worsening air raid pattern, with alarms now occurring across daytime, evening, and overnight hours.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: The Daily Mail out of London, which is not generally considered a fully reliable source, cites 12 Israeli sources who believe he has either been injured or killed. Rosner, what are you hearing?

Rick Rosner: Those reports appear to rely on unnamed security sources, so caution is warranted. Even if a senior figure were killed, it would not necessarily change Iran’s strategic posture. Iran is geographically large—roughly four times the size of California and significantly larger than Iraq. According to widely cited defense assessments such as the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance, Iran maintains approximately 575,000 active military personnel. This includes the regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In addition, there are several hundred thousand reservists and paramilitary Basij forces affiliated with the IRGC. The IRGC itself includes ground, naval, aerospace, and internal security components. This is not Iraq in 2003; Iraq had been significantly degraded by sanctions, no-fly zones, and prior conflict before the U.S.-led invasion.

If the United States were to conduct several days of aerial bombardment, as suggested, that would represent limited strikes rather than a full-scale invasion. Calls for the Iranian population to overthrow their government assume that external pressure translates into internal regime collapse. Historically, that is uncertain. Iran’s current political system has been in place since the 1979 revolution. It has faced repeated internal protests—1999, 2009, 2017–2018, 2019, and 2022–2023—yet the governing structure has remained intact.

That aligns with historical precedent. External military pressure does not reliably produce stable democratic outcomes. Post–Cold War U.S.-led regime-change efforts in the Middle East—most notably Iraq in 2003—resulted in prolonged instability rather than immediate democratic consolidation. Each case differs, but the historical record is mixed at best.

In domestic political terms, the effect on presidential approval would depend on scale, duration, casualties, and outcomes. Historically, limited military action can produce a short-term “rally-around-the-flag” effect, but prolonged or inconclusive conflicts often erode support. It is too early to assign specific percentages.

If the Iranian regime were to collapse and transition to a broadly supported alternative government, that would reshape regional geopolitics. However, regime collapse in highly centralized security states is difficult to predict and statistically uncommon without sustained internal fracture within elite or military ranks.

Jacobsen: Assigning a numerical probability would be speculative. Qualitatively, the likelihood of rapid regime collapse resulting solely from limited external strikes appears low.

Rosner: Historically, large-scale regime removal that resulted in stable democratic systems—such as Germany and Japan after World War II—occurred after total war, unconditional surrender, and long-term occupation backed by broad international coalitions. Even in that context, once the United States formally entered World War II in December 1941, it took nearly four years until Axis surrender in 1945.

World War II cost the United States roughly 405,000 military deaths, and total Allied military and civilian deaths were far higher across Europe and Asia.

Jacobsen: What is next, COVID?

Rosner: Los Angeles did not experience a winter COVID spike. In what is now the seventh year since the pandemic began in 2020, case numbers in Los Angeles and across California are very low.

Hospital test positivity rates are around 3 percent, which is generally considered low. In Los Angeles, the rate is approximately 0.69 percent—well below that threshold—and it has remained there for several months.

Nationally, and in England as well, case levels are lower this year than last year, and last year was lower than the year before. I do not want to speculate prematurely, but at some point community transmission becomes low enough that major seasonal spikes diminish.

Typically, case numbers begin declining toward the end of winter and remain lower through spring and summer, partly because people spend more time outdoors, where respiratory viruses spread less efficiently than in confined indoor spaces.

I have been cautious about masking, though I sometimes forgo a mask at the gym. Both Carole and I contracted COVID within the past year, so it has certainly not disappeared. However, current indicators are encouraging.

Public health policy is less prominent in national discussion right now, given other political and international developments. Even so, the underlying epidemiological numbers suggest lower levels of contagious spread than in previous years. That may allow continued gradual decline independent of policy changes.

How is Kyiv?

Jacobsen: They are conducting more strikes recently. Today there was an air raid alarm in the middle of the day—around noon. They are doing them at different times in the morning, the afternoon, the evening, and overnight.

Rick Rosner is an accomplished television writer with credits on shows like Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Crank Yankers, and The Man Show. Over his career, he has earned multiple Writers Guild Award nominations—winning one—and an Emmy nomination. Rosner holds a broad academic background, graduating with the equivalent of eight majors. Based in Los Angeles, he continues to write and develop ideas while spending time with his wife, daughter, and two dogs.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen is the publisher of In-Sight Publishing (ISBN: 978-1-0692343) and Editor-in-Chief of In-Sight: Interviews (ISSN: 2369-6885). He writes for The Good Men Project, International Policy Digest (ISSN: 2332–9416), The Humanist (Print: ISSN 0018-7399; Online: ISSN 2163-3576), Basic Income Earth Network (UK Registered Charity 1177066), A Further Inquiry, and other media. He is a member in good standing of numerous media organizations.

Photo by Maciej Ruminkiewicz on Unsplash

Last updated May 3, 2025. These terms govern all In Sight Publishing content—past, present, and future—and supersede any prior notices. In Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons BY‑NC‑ND 4.0; © In Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen 2012–Present. All trademarks, performances, databases & branding are owned by their rights holders; no use without permission. Unauthorized copying, modification, framing or public communication is prohibited. External links are not endorsed. Cookies & tracking require consent, and data processing complies with PIPEDA & GDPR; no data from children < 13 (COPPA). Content meets WCAG 2.1 AA under the Accessible Canada Act & is preserved in open archival formats with backups. Excerpts & links require full credit & hyperlink; limited quoting under fair-dealing & fair-use. All content is informational; no liability for errors or omissions: Feedback welcome, and verified errors corrected promptly. For permissions or DMCA notices, email: scott.jacobsen2025@gmail.com. Site use is governed by BC laws; content is “as‑is,” liability limited, users indemnify us; moral, performers’ & database sui generis rights reserved.