Ask A Genius 574 – Probabilities and Counting

In-Sight Publishing

November 2, 2020

[Beginning of recorded material]

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What are the chances that Trump and Biden or Biden winning now, and what are the chances of Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning in the 2016 election, how it is comparable or not?

Rick Rosner: So, I think at the last moment, last time in 2016, everybody turned to The New York Times probability needle and away from But I think at the last moment for, it gave her a 69% chance of winning.

Jacobsen: How much?

Rosner: 69. Bill and Ted’s number, a nice number, gave Trump a 31% chance of winning. that was the highest for Trump during the entire lead up to the election. It was because of what Comey did with 11 days to go, which caused Hillary Clinton about 2 percent, which was early enough. It doesn’t get said enough. But if Comey had done what he did and Hillary eked out a narrow win, the last four years would have still been pretty fucked up because the Senate would still be the same, still being run by Mitch McConnell. But at least, we would have had a Democratic president and a confrontational one. Obama was non-confrontational and he gave the Republicans endless opportunities to compromise with him, and they never did. Had Hillary become president, whether in 2005 or 2012 I’m sorry, 2005. I’m sorry.

Whether in 2009 or 2017 she would have been already pissed off and she would have had no illusions about working with the Republicans. That could have been a good thing. Because even now the Democrats play the long game, they kind of sit back and aren’t scorched earth confrontation and they wait for the Republicans to go too far. We’re hoping that tomorrow is the day we finally see the results of Republicans having gone way, way too far. Anyway, Trump was given three times as big a chance by, as they’re giving him now back in 2016, giving him a 10% chance of winning. Another aggregator, The Economist, is giving him a 4% chance. If you look at the voting, 98.8 million early votes have been registered. By the time they’re done registering early and vote by mail votes, that number will probably swell to 103 million or more.

Because ballots in a third of the states, maybe more are allowed, if you postmark them before, on or before Election Day, they’re allowed to be counted. Even the 98.8 is more than twice as many early and vote by mail votes as were whatever voted in 2016, the vote by mail votes heavily favored by all those early votes, which included the vote by mail votes. Biden has among the roughly one third of those votes that were the state where they were voted; the state to release the party affiliation of the voter. That party affiliation gives Democrats a seven million vote lead, which doesn’t include Independents. It doesn’t give any indication of Republicans who may have crossed over. According to pretty good polls, Trump may have lost 12% of the people who voted for him in 2016 and only gained 4% crossover from people who voted for Hillary in 2016.

So few Democrats, maybe around 1%, will have voted for Trump, but it may be 5% of Republicans have voted for Biden. We won’t know until everything’s done. Then there are 20 million Independents who voted and Biden may have a 10% advantage among them. So, overall, the early vote may give Biden a 15 million vote advantage, which ought to be enough to hold off the day of voters. We’ve talked about this. They will vote heavily Trump or maybe not. As enough people may be just so pissed off at what has been going; in that, Trump’s day of advantage may not be that strong or Trump’s continuing to be just an awful dick. Infected people, particularly old people, may discourage some, especially older Trump voters, but people feel more confident. It is a weird week. People felt confident in the polls 2016, but they felt stupidly confident.

And now people feel confident that the polls, feel confident in better polling this time around. So, people feel like they were foolishly confident in 2016. They feel like they’re cautiously optimistic this time around, but with the emphasis on the cautious because we got burned badly in 2016. But the methodology seems to be better. The raw numbers, the early voting numbers seem to be cause for optimism. We’ve never had this kind of turnout before. 137 or 138 million people voted in 2016, I think that was an all time high. But now people are predicting like 160 million votes, which will be the biggest jump both in raw numbers of votes and, I think, in terms of percentage turnout in history. That kind of turnout makes it a little bit unpredictable. But it still is cause for optimism because Trump becoming more and more of a lawless asshole really hasn’t expanded his appeal beyond the base.

And that’s what he’s still just appealing to the base in an abusive way for the past like 4 nights. His campaign hasn’t paid for buses to take people back. So, hundreds and possibly thousands of people, many of them old, are stranded in the cold, two or three miles away from where they parked. They have to walk to their vehicles. It is just like a “fuck you.” Trump never pays the bills for the venues he uses for these events. So, there are dozens of rallies that haven’t been paid. They just don’t pay for it. I don’t know why cities haven’t figured this out and have refused to host his bullshit. Also, Stanford did a study of 18 of his rallies held between June and September and found that those rallies based on increased incidence of Covid in the weeks after the rallies in the communities where they were held.

They did the math and they found that these 18 rallies caused a total of or led to a total of 30,000 more cases of Covid and more or less 700 dead, which is appalling. If you believe that most people don’t believe this shit, they’ve been manipulated by their curated media. Media that picks and chooses the stories it tells and then mixes that in with just a healthy binder where you find crab cakes; you take the crab and then you mix it with breadcrumbs to hold the whole thing together. Also, so, you don’t have to spend too much on crab. So, fucking, what people who watch the conservative media, they get little bits of stories, crab cake mixed in with just pure shit, which is the bread crumbs that hold them together.

Anyhow, Trump didn’t hold just 18 super secret rallies, those were just the 18 studied by Stanford. Trump now held 17 Covid era super spreader rallies. If you extrapolate the numbers from the 18 that were studied, you get Trump has Trump rallies that have led to or will lead to in the next several weeks, 100,000 new cases of Covid and more than 2,500 dead. So, just by holding his fucking rallies, Trump may be responsible for 1% of the Covid cases and 1% of the deaths in America, which is just fucking crazy. He is just dumb, lazy Hitler. So, we have less than 22 hours now until polls close in California, which pretty much marks the end of the voting season. Because Alaska and Hawaii, Alaska goes Republican, Hawaii goes Democratic. They both have small populations. So, nobody cares about their one or two electoral votes.

Each state has its own law about when they can start counting votes. Every state and start counting votes that were cast on Election Day once the polls close or maybe even before. then states can release those voting results after the polls closed. But every state has its own custom rules about when they can start counting votes cast early or by mail. So, we don’t really know what the state of counting will be in the states that count like Texas, Florida, all these swing states, battleground states. So, we don’t know if there will be clear returns out of the states that matter after the polls close. We also don’t know what the Republicans will do. Republicans have been filing lawsuits in a number of states to try to get votes thrown out.

And it is expected that the Republicans will file dozens of lawsuits in various states tomorrow to try to invalidate some of the vote. So, nobody knows what’s going to happen, whether how long it will take for all this to get straightened out. There is cause for limited optimism and again; I think I already said this like a couple of days ago. I was talking to you that the Supreme Court looks like it will engage in outright stealing the election for Trump, but it has to be close. As it was in the year 2000, and I think Bush and Gore only differ by like one half of 1% of the popular vote and the conservatives on the Supreme Court threw it to Bush. If Trump loses by millions and millions of votes or is trailing by, the Supreme Court isn’t going to throw out the votes of entire states. So, that’s where we stand. Everybody’s nervous. Everybody on Twitter, at least the people I follow on Twitter and probably mostly everybody. I get there maybe like MAGA Twitter where they’re just like, “I don’t know,” they’re probably nervous too. Everybody I follow on Twitter is shitting themselves.

The end.

[End of recorded material]


Rick Rosner

American Television Writer


(Updated July 25, 2019)

*High range testing (HRT) should be taken with honest skepticism grounded in the limited empirical development of the field at present, even in spite of honest and sincere efforts. If a higher general intelligence score, then the greater the variability in, and margin of error in, the general intelligence scores because of the greater rarity in the population.*

According to some semi-reputable sources gathered in a listing hereRick G. Rosner may have among America’s, North America’s, and the world’s highest measured IQs at or above 190 (S.D. 15)/196 (S.D. 16) based on several high range test performances created by Christopher HardingJason BettsPaul Cooijmans, and Ronald Hoeflin. He earned 12 years of college credit in less than a year and graduated with the equivalent of 8 majors. He has received 8 Writers Guild Awards and Emmy nominations, and was titled 2013 North American Genius of the Year by The World Genius Directory with the main “Genius” listing here.

He has written for Remote ControlCrank YankersThe Man ShowThe EmmysThe Grammys, and Jimmy Kimmel Live!. He worked as a bouncer, a nude art model, a roller-skating waiter, and a stripper. In a television commercialDomino’s Pizza named him the “World’s Smartest Man.” The commercial was taken off the air after Subway sandwiches issued a cease-and-desist. He was named “Best Bouncer” in the Denver Area, Colorado, by Westwood Magazine.

Rosner spent much of the late Disco Era as an undercover high school student. In addition, he spent 25 years as a bar bouncer and American fake ID-catcher, and 25+ years as a stripper, and nearly 30 years as a writer for more than 2,500 hours of network television. Errol Morris featured Rosner in the interview series entitled First Person, where some of this history was covered by Morris. He came in second, or lost, on Jeopardy!, sued Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? over a flawed question and lost the lawsuit. He won one game and lost one game on Are You Smarter Than a Drunk Person? (He was drunk). Finally, he spent 37+ years working on a time-invariant variation of the Big Bang Theory.

Currently, Rosner sits tweeting in a bathrobe (winter) or a towel (summer). He lives in Los AngelesCalifornia with his wife, dog, and goldfish. He and his wife have a daughter. You can send him money or questions at LanceVersusRick@Gmail.Com, or a direct message via Twitter, or find him on LinkedIn, or see him on YouTube.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen

Founder, In-Sight Publishing


In-Sight Publishing

Scott Douglas Jacobsen is the Founder of In-Sight Publishing and Editor-in-Chief of In-Sight: Independent Interview-Based Journal (ISSN 2369-6885). Jacobsen works for science and human rights, especially women’s and children’s rights. He considers the modern scientific and technological world the foundation for the provision of the basics of human life throughout the world and the advancement of human rights as the universal movement among peoples everywhere.


[1] Four format points for the session article:

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License and Copyright


In-Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Based on a work at and


© Scott Douglas Jacobsen, Rick Rosner, and In-Sight Publishing 2012-2020. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Scott Douglas Jacobsen, Rick Rosner, and In-Sight Publishing with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

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